Colombia's Presidential Election: First-Round Surprise and Its Lessons
Open hand vs iron fist
The result of the first round of Colombia's presidential election on May 31 constitutes a triple political earthquake: it defied the polls, dealt a stinging defeat to the traditional conservative (“Uribista”) establishment, and exposed the flaws in the strategy of the left-wing incumbent (Historic Pact).
A Victory that’s all smoke and mirrors for the Far-Right “Outsider”: A criminal defense lawyer with no political experience, Abelardo de la Espriella came in first with 43.8% of the vote, roughly a 670,000-vote lead over his rival. His rhetoric, copied from Donald Trump and Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, promising a “iron fist” against insecurity and the construction of 10 mega-prisons, resonated strongly in the country’s central regions, where urban crime is a major concern. This success is all the more striking because it wiped out the conservative establishment candidate, Paloma Valencia, who got only 7% of the vote despite the support of former president and right-wing figurehead Álvaro Uribe.
The “Historic Pact” on Alert: The left-wing candidate, Iván Cepeda, who was leading in all the polls, received only 40.9% of the vote. Far from being a victory, this score is seen as an underperformance. Experts agree that Cepeda’s campaign made several strategic errors: excessive focus on peace issues (even though they are President Petro’s legacy), failure to participate in debates, and an inability to address voters’ immediate concerns such as insecurity, corruption, and healthcare.
A Rejection of Continuity Rather Than an Ideological Choice: The result seems less a massive endorsement of the far-right platform than a protest vote against President Gustavo Petro’s “Total Peace” policy. This gamble of negotiating with armed groups is widely seen as a failure, with violence and the number of active combatants having increased. Voters in the central regions clearly expressed their preference for a security solution, while coastal areas, where the state has been more present through development projects, more strongly endorsed continuity.
Outlook for the Runoff: A High-Pressure Campaign
The runoff, scheduled for June 21, promises to be a short (20-day), brutal campaign dominated by the psychology of “strategic voting” and fear.
The Battle for Endorsements: Where Are the 3 Million Missing Voters? The math is simple: neither finalist reached a majority, and to win the election, nearly 3 million additional voters must be convinced.
The Conservative Pool: The third-place candidate, Paloma Valencia (7%), immediately endorsed de la Espriella, as did former president Uribe. This balance of power already appears largely consolidated on the right.
The Center, the True Kingmaker: The 1.2 million centrist voters, led by Sergio Fajardo (about 1 million votes) and Claudia López (225,000 votes), are therefore the key to the election. However, centrist voters are, by definition, resistant to block voting instructions. Claudia López has clearly positioned herself against de la Espriella, but that does not guarantee her voters will automatically switch to Cepeda.
The Risky Bet on Abstention: President Petro himself identified the target to go after: abstentionists and young people. To achieve this, his strategy is clear: demonize his opponent, labeling him rightly a “fascist,” and present the election as the last rampart to save “democracy” and social achievements.
Campaign Weapons: Fear, Debates, and an Explosive Social Context
The “Fear-Vote” Strategy: The outcome of the election will hinge on each side’s ability to crystallize voters’ fears. On one side, de la Espriella plays on the fear of insecurity and the “Venezuelanization” of the country. On the other, Cepeda plays on the fear of an authoritarian drift and a return to a repressive state.
The Debate Issue: The first campaign was marked by the absence of debates, a strategy that hurt Cepeda. The left-wing candidate is now calling for direct confrontations, while his opponent, in a strong position, might have less to gain from them. For experts, these debates will be crucial in helping undecided voters make up their minds.
A Social Powder Keg in Cali: Beyond the ballot box, the atmosphere is electric. In Cali, the country’s second-largest city and a left-wing bastion, rumors of post-electoral mobilizations and violence are circulating, reviving the trauma of the 2021 protests. Mayor Alejandro Eder has promised zero tolerance, but the climate remains one of the most concerning in the country, heralding a potentially turbulent transition.
In summary, this runoff is a vote of mood and rejection, more than one of policy alignment. The momentum seems favorable to de la Espriella, who has a united conservative base and a simple message against insecurity. Cepeda, for his part, must pull off a difficult gamble: mobilize abstentionists, convince a skeptical center, and overcome the unpopularity of his mentor President Petro’s legacy.
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